Issue 01 · Corridor Series · AMARI Capital & Advisory

The Food Economy

The investable market is the hidden middle.

Agribusiness, food and supply chains across Sub-Saharan Africa.

55 pages · Published July 2026 · Melbourne

Cover of The Food Economy, Issue 01 of the AMARI Capital & Advisory Corridor Series.

A note before we begin

A harvest can be plentiful and still fail commercially. It can spoil before it is stored, miss the grade a buyer requires, arrive too late, or be sold before the producer has recovered the cost of growing it. A field produces food; a system turns that food into reliable supply. The distinction sounds simple, but it changes where we look for value and where we look for risk.

We are naturally drawn to beginnings: the seed, the new technology, the promise of a larger harvest. We are also drawn to the end of the chain, where the product reaches a consumer and the price becomes visible. The middle receives less attention precisely because much of its work is unremarkable. Warehouses, cold rooms, mills, receipts, standards, trucks and repayment records do not make grand stories. They simply determine whether the story survives contact with the market.

The pages that follow are an attempt to pay attention to that space, and to be disciplined enough to distinguish what is interesting from what is ready.

Jeremy Nyerenyere, Group Chief Executive Officer

The commercial case rests on five findings.

The corresponding part dates and sources each figure. Each claim retains its material limit.

~60%vs 4% finance share

The midstream holds most of the chain's post-farm-gate value and cost, and receives little agricultural development finance.

Published estimates place 40 to 70 per cent of urban African food costs in post-farm-gate activities, depending on the product and country; about 60 per cent is a midpoint shorthand. The closest measured finance figure is narrower than the headline suggests: agro-industrial activity received 4 per cent of agricultural development finance flows to West Africa between 2010 and 2020. One estimate places the agri-SME financing gap at roughly US$74bn a year, representing about 84 per cent of unmet demand.

Part One. AGRA, Africa Agriculture Status Report (2017); AUC and OECD (2023); ISF Advisors / CASA (2022); directional.

30.9%audited processor margin, one company, one year

The sample's highest audited operating margin belongs to an integrated processor with physical asset control.

The processor owns conversion and distribution. The best-funded asset-light logistics platforms raised more than US$250 million collectively before suspensions or valuation collapse by 2025.

Part Three. Single listed processor: audited FY2024 operating margin; reported funding and restructuring records. One company, one year; not representative of the sector.

~83%of agri-SME demand unmet

Mispriced risk contributes to the financing gap.

Demand for agri-SME credit in Sub-Saharan Africa remains largely unmet.

Part Four. SAFIN/industry (2024) for ~US$90bn/~83%; ISF / CASA (2022) for ~US$74bn/~84%; Aceli / Dalberg facility benchmarking (35 lenders, ~22,000 loans, East Africa), 2024; OECD Aceli blended-finance case study.

Thindocumented corridor flow

The documented corridor remains thin, and its near-term value lies in origination.

Australia's agri-food merchandise trade with African partners is small beside its main Asian corridors.

Part Five. ACIAR (AAPCRA); programme announcement, 2024; corridor diligence, 2026. Public-record finding; does not preclude private or undisclosed transactions.

2026EUDR enforcement

EUDR preparation creates a near-term compliance advisory opportunity.

EUDR deforestation due-diligence obligations for European buyers apply from 30 December 2026 for large and medium operators and 30 June 2027 for micro and small operators, subject to further legislative change. In one anchor Côte d'Ivoire cocoa origin, coverage reached about 58 per cent of cooperatives against a 100 per cent requirement in mid-2025. Compliance costs were benchmarked near EUR 10 to 60 per tonne. This creates a near-term advisory opportunity distinct from the longer-dated agri-carbon watch.

Part Five. European Commission EUDR; sector diligence, 2024 to 2026. Subject to further legislative change.

The evidence redirects five common assumptions.

Five widely repeated propositions contain valid observations, but the evidence supports a different emphasis.

The common assumption	What the evidence supports
Farm-gate productivity is the primary driver of agricultural value and returns across the continent.	More value is added in the midstream than at the farm gate.Published estimates place roughly sixty per cent of value added between farm and fork in processing, storage and trading. Farm-gate prices reflect the costs and margins taken through the midstream. Without control of conversion or a buyer relationship, yield gains tend to benefit the aggregator before the farm.
User uptake and capital raised by an agritech platform signal commercial durability.	Unit economics and asset control provide stronger evidence of commercial durability.Several well-funded asset-light platforms reached significant user counts before valuation corrections or operational suspensions. The highest audited margins in the sample belong to integrated processors that own the conversion step. Registered users and funds raised measure reach and financing. Audited margin and buyer retention provide evidence of commercial durability.
Direct smallholder credit is the primary frontier opportunity in African agricultural finance.	The aggregator is often the more bankable counterparty.Without a collection mechanism, lending to dispersed smallholders tends to produce returns below the cost of capital unless blended-finance support is available. Better-performing facilities typically underwrite receivables at the aggregator or processor level. The smallholder benefits one step downstream.
Agri-carbon and voluntary carbon markets represent the near-term commercial prize for the corridor.	EUDR compliance supports near-term work. Carbon remains a 36-month watch item.Farmer-level income in current voluntary markets is reported at roughly EUR 7 to 17 per farmer per year in Sub-Saharan Africa, on watch-list evidence. That level does not support a standalone mandate without buyer premiums that have not been documented at scale. EUDR obligations from December 2026 create a fixed compliance deadline. Agricultural carbon-market routes also exist, but their project economics, approvals and timing vary by methodology and jurisdiction.
The size of the African diaspora in Australia is a reliable indicator of the potential commercial market.	The diaspora is a bridge to access and trust, not a market-size indicator.Diaspora spending power does not show commercial demand for the supply-chain advisory or compliance services considered here. The more useful role is to build trust, reduce barriers to an initial transaction and introduce counterparties that are not readily found through a directory search.

The one test

The deal test applied throughout.

Does this counterparty control the scarce function and convert it into retained cash? Can it provide records a financier can underwrite? Without that evidence, the opportunity may remain real but is not ready for capital.

01The Structure of the Food EconomyValue and risk concentrate in the operating middle.
02Value Capture Along the ChainMargin appears to concentrate in grade, conversion and buyer access.
03Operator Economics and DurabilityAudited margin is more closely associated with operating control than with capital raised.
04Financing by TierAgribusiness capital constraints reflect both limited supply and different risk pricing by tier.
05The Australia to Africa CorridorThe documented corridor remains thin, and its near-term value lies in origination.

What this analysis will not claim

The analysis rejects four inferences, regardless of how persuasive the underlying number appears. Every retained figure carries its source, date and scope on the page where it is used.

Funding raised does not establish performance.

Capital records a successful raise at one point. It does not show whether the business will last.

Reach does not establish usage.

Registered users, downloads and partnerships measure visibility. Active paying use is the test.

A single good season does not establish a track record.

Repayment, yield and margin must hold through a difficult season before they establish one.

Diaspora scale is not a sector measure.

The diaspora is a bridge to access and trust; it is not used as a proxy for market size.

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